THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANES MITCH, KEITH AND IRIS ON

THE IMPACTS OF HURRICANES MITCH, KEITH AND IRIS ON TOURISTS, TOURISM, AND DEVELOPMENT IN BELIZE, 1998-2003 John P. Tiefenbacher Department of Geography Texas State University-San Marcos San Marcos, TX 78666 and Carol M. Koenig Stewart Doucet & Associates 7401B Hwy. 71 West Suite 160 Austin, TX 78735 1. INTRODUCTION The complex problem of tourism in hazardous locales, as demonstrated recently by Indonesia’s tsunami experiences, remains rather unexplored hazards research. Tourism creates unique emergency management and disaster response issues because tourists are usually in unfamiliar surroundings during extreme natural events, lodging and recreational businesses must care for guests’ welfare (as well as their own) during their visit, host communities must absorb the “excess” population into their collective disaster plans, and destroyed physical infrastructure and a persistent disaster-prone image must be overcome to revitalize the tourism economy. For most Central American and Caribbean destinations “low-season” coincides with hurricane season. This is also the time of year when lower rates entice visitors to these areas, and many are unaware of the risks. Businesses that lure visitors to tropical coastal destinations during hurricane season should be aware that they need to be prepared to accommodate and handle those tourists responsibly. A pleasing and safe experience is always a reason for a traveler to return. This study examines the impacts of three major hurricanes on tourism in Belize during a six-year period from 1998 to 2003. Using Belize Tourism Board data, we examine the relationships between the timing of the storms, disruption of tourism flows, and the long-term trends of tourism infrastructure and economy. 2. BACKGROUND THE IMPORTANCE OF TOURISM IN BELIZE Belize is located in Central America, south of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, east of Guatemala, and north of Honduras (Figure 1). Belize (formerly British Honduras) is Central America’s second smallest country and the only Central American country without a Pacific coastline. Belize’s population of less than 300,000 (approximately one third living in Belize City the former capital) makes it the least densely populated country in the region. After Hurricane Hattie (1961), a new capital city, Belmopan, was created inland and the central government was relocated. Tourism and agriculture are the twin pillars of the Belizean economy. Export of agricultural products (of principally citrus, sugar and bananas) is the leading source of the country’s foreign exchange at approximately 59 percent, but tourism may soon surpass it. From 1997 through 2001, tourism was responsible for more than 20 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP), greater than either industry or agriculture (Government of Belize, 1999b). The United States is a major trading partner of Belize, accounting for 53.8 percent of total exports, and the origin of the majority of tourists visiting Belize. The U.S. accounted for 54 percent of the almost 200,000 visitors to Belize in 2001 (Belize Tourism Board Ministry of Tourism & Culture, 2001). As a result of policies initiated in 1998, the GDP of Belize grew 6.4 percent in 1999, and 10.5 percent in 2000. However, growth dropped to 3 percent in 2001. This economic slowdown “was attributed to a contraction in some economic sub-sectors as a result of two natural disasters in rapid succession, declining export prices, and the impact of the September 11 terrorists attacks on tourism and other activities” (Government of Belize, 1999b). FIGURE 1 TOURISM DISTRICTS OF BELIZE AND PATHS OF HURRICANES MITCH, KEITH, AND IRIS The strengths of the Belizean economy are abundant land, forests, water resources and coastal attractions, which create substantial opportunities for nature-based (or eco-) tourism (Government of Belize 1999a). Belize has managed to preserve 45 percent of its forested area, which provides habitat for more than 500 species of birds, and threatened populations of mammals like jaguars, howler monkeys, and manatees. Belize takes pride in conservation and believes that eco-cultural tourism is a truly sustainable product that will provide economic growth while preserving Belize’s environment and resources (Government of Belize, 1999a). The country has been praised for its sustainable development strategies that ensure that its people benefit from the public lands. It has succeeded despite constant monetary problems and pressures from big business interests. HURRICANE DISASTERS OF THE LAST DECADE: MITCH, KEITH AND IRIS In November 1998, Hurricane Mitch, a category five storm, destroyed all the docks on Ambergris Caye and Caye Caulker, damaged Belize’s southern cayes, flooded southern Belizean communities, and eroded beaches on the Placencia peninsula (Belize Hurricane Net, 1998a) from more than 100 miles away before turning south and unleashing its wrath on Honduras and Nicaragua. Coastal Belize and the eastern Mexican Yucatan were evacuated on October 26-27 in anticipation of a direct hit, tornadoes, or flooding. In Belize, grocery stores ran out of food, gas stations ran out of gas, inland shelters and hotels were overflowing, roadways were jammed with cars and buses headed travel westward, and the sale of alcohol was banned. Belize experienced flooding in many parts of the country, suffered damage to its famous reef, and witnessed severe beach erosion. Sheltering of residents in community shelters often exceeded four days. Tourists were evacuated and many others cancelled their reservations, but by October 30 the Deputy Prime Minister and others began to encourage tourists to follow through with their planned visits (Belize Hurricane Net, 1998b). Mitch was ultimately responsible for more than 9,000 deaths (none in Belize) making it one of the deadliest Atlantic tropical cyclones in history. In late September 2000, Hurricane Keith reached category four intensity with winds up to 135 miles-per-hour. It stalled off the coast of Belize and weakened to category three. On October 1st, Keith struck Ambergris Caye and destroyed hundreds of flimsy wooden houses, ripped roofs of hotels, tossed boats and vehicles, and toppled or uprooted trees. Keith proceeded on to Caye Caulker where the damage was even more extensive. The storm meandered erratically between the two islands, weakening to category one on October 2 as it crossed Ambergris Caye again, and then moved onto the mainland just north of Belize City on October 3 as a tropical storm. The hurricane also damaged Turneffe Atoll and other northern cayes. Keith caused serious flooding on the mainland as it dissipated. But due to its rapid development, few people managed to escape the cayes before the storm made landfall (Government of Belize, 2000a). Reports on the number of people killed in Belize by Keith vary from none to five (Government of Belize, 2000a. The Government of Belize (2000a) estimated damage to infrastructure, utilities, tourist facilities, agriculture, businesses, the governmental sector, and private and personal losses at $500 million. The deputy prime minister said that Keith also dealt a blow to the environment: damaging trees, beaches, the reef, and animals. Iris, a category four hurricane, slammed into the beach and tourist areas of Placencia and Monkey River Town in October 2001. Its winds of 140 mph made Iris the most powerful hurricane of 2001 (Avila, 2001). Other areas in the Stann Creek and Toledo Districts were also damaged. Iris had developed out of a poorly defined tropical wave that crossed the Atlantic in late September. On the morning of October 8, Iris strengthened rapidly from category one to two, three, and four strength on the afternoon of October 8 with winds as high as 138 mph. Just before landfall at Monkey River Town, in the early morning hours of October 9, Iris intensified with winds peaking at 144 mph. After ripping through southern Belize, Iris continued westward into Guatemala (Avila, 2001). The forecasts and warnings for Iris had unusually large track errors for a westward moving system in the deep tropics. Although the advisories predicted that Iris had the potential to become a dangerous hurricane, most official forecasts underestimated the intensity and assumed that the storm would weaken and slow down. Instead, Iris strengthened and speeded up. The errors may be attributable to the speed of the storm rather than its direction since the largest errors occurred during the rapid intensification phase (Avila, 2001). On October 7, Iris was expected to hit Belize City or the region to its north, so Belize City was evacuated. However, by October 8, it became clear that Iris was headed directly for southern Belize, so the Placencia Peninsula and other southern areas were evacuated. In all about 80,000 Belizeans and 5,000 Guatemalans were evacuated from coastal areas (BBC News, 2001). Due to a small core and rapid forward motion, Iris moved rapidly through Belize and the damage was concentrated within an approximate fifty-two mile path. The hurricane-force winds extended only fifteen miles from the eye. The areas hardest hit by Iris were Placencia, Monkey River Town, and Independence. Multiple reports stated that Iris totally devastated some villages, wiping out 90-99 percent of the houses. Some reported 75-100 percent damage from Placencia to Dangriga (Stann Creek). Losses in the banana industry were reported to be 100 percent, as well as 95-100 percent loss in other crops in rural villages (BBC News, 2001). Thousands of people in the banana and tourism industries were left unemployed (Steen, 2001). Storm surge reports in the vicinity of Placencia vary from eight to fifteen feet in height (Avila, 2001; WRAL.com, 2001). Streets were flooded and trees were downed. All utilities to Placencia Village were lost including the village water line under the lagoon, which was totally destroyed. It was estimated that 75-85 percent of the structures in Placencia village were destroyed or damaged. Although, the northern villages on the peninsula were not hit as hard, Seine Bight lost almost as many structures to the storm surge due to their age and condition, and Maya Beach suffered significant water damage to first floors. Several cayes were heavily damaged, and structures located upon them were destroyed. In Monkey River Town only two buildings remained standing and one of those, the hurricane shelter, lost its roof. There was also heavy damage to the jungle around Monkey River Town (Belize Hurricane Net 2001). The loss of the canopy was detrimental to the monkey and bird populations. In Independence, the football stadium was leveled, telephone poles were in the streets, bananas from containers on the dock were everywhere – crushed, 70 percent of the buildings lost their roofs, some collapsed, and cars were flattened (BBC News, 2001). The hurricane shelter in Independence also lost its roof. Iris completely destroyed most Mayan communities in the Toledo District within seventy-five miles of the coast (Belize Hurricane Net, 2001). An American dive boat, the Wave Dancer, docked in the mangroves at the mouth of nearby Big Creek, capsized and eighteen people drowned (Avila, 2001). The Belize Times reported “Iris showed no mercy and proceeded to smash to smithereens everything in her path” (Avila, 2001). News 5 reported that Iris not only destroyed buildings but devastated the region’s two main sources of income: fishing and tourism (Belize Hurricane Net, 2002). The Tropical Cyclone Report for Hurricane Iris stated that the Belize Government estimated the damages at approximately $66.2 million. However, a report from the Government of Belize (2000b) on June 3, 2002, estimated the total damage at “480 million dollars” (Note: This may be in Belizean dollars, which is set at an exchange rate of $2 BZ to $1 US. The report does not specify the currency. However, $240 million US would more closely coincide with other estimates.) Another report listed damages at $250 million, with 13,000 people left homeless (Steen, 2001). The total death toll for Iris was at least thirty-one including deaths reported in Belize and the Dominican Republic (Sambatero, 2001; Steen, 2001). Natural disasters can have multiple negative impacts on the local, regional, and national economies of affected areas. Tourism is one of the country’s main industries, and the country has continuously struggled with financial issues related to preserving its natural heritage and providing for its citizens. Therefore, these disasters have created a tremendous impact on this country’s tourism industry. Although a significant national economic decline, due to the global trade slowdown, and severe hurricane damages to agriculture, fishing, and tourism, was reported in 2001, Belize’s tourism economy apparently fared well. The Belize Tourism Board Ministry of Tourism & Culture (2001) even reported a slight increase in the number of visitors in 2001, despite the September 11, 2001, attacks in the U.S. and Hurricane Iris in October 2001. The Belize Tourism Board Ministry of Tourism & Culture believes that recovering from Iris will take longer than the recovery from Hurricane Keith (2000) due to a slower U.S. market. 3. LITERATURE REVIEW Burby and Wagner (1996)’s study of tourism planning and preparedness in the context of hurricane hazard is unique in that it is the only study that specifically focuses on issues regarding tourism and hazards. The study focused on planning for hurricane emergencies. They examined the ways in which tourism businesses in New Orleans, Louisiana, U.S.A. can and have protected guests from storms. Numerous “vulnerabilities” were identified. Hotels failed to annually revise hurricane emergency plans or even design evacuation plans, failed to train their staff, and failed to hold regular exercises. The City of New Orleans’ emergency plan in fact includes no provisions to deal with the thousands of tourists that may be visiting that city at any given moment. In an area where many residents lack personal transportation, public transportation would likely be quickly overwhelmed. Most hotels preferred to inform their guests of the hurricane status and allow them to make the decision of when to leave. Some hotels believed that their buildings would be safe during a hurricane and that a hotel-initiated evacuation would be foolish due to the potential liability. They were unwilling to assume responsibility for guests beyond the walls of their hotel (Burby and Wagner, 1996). On the positive side, Burby and Wagner (1996) reported that the size of an organization correlated with its degree of preparedness for hurricane emergencies; i.e., larger hotels were better prepared. Due to a lack of resources and expertise, however, smaller hotels focus on dealing with day-to-day issues and tend to ignore emergency planning. Because they serve a small number of guests, most small hotel managers believed that they could deal with a hurricane if the need arises. This study stresses the importance of increasing the awareness of hotel management of the destructive forces of hurricanes and their willingness to seriously plan for the possible evacuation of their guests. They also note that preventing massive loss of life that will blight tourism in the affected area for years is in the economic self-interest of the tourism industry. This industry strives, after all, to entice visitors to very dynamic and potentially dangerous locations. New Orleans’ problems are a microcosm of tourism- dependent economies worldwide. Tourist destinations in every nation are vulnerable to rapid-onset natural hazards. Tourists in hazard-prone areas are at greater risk than locals due to several factors: the location of resorts are at water’s edge along coasts subject to powerful storms; steep, potentially unstable slopes are developed to take advantage of views, or historic buildings are used but may lack reinforcement; tourists are often unfamiliar with the resort area and lack of knowledge about the appropriate hazard responses; and tourists often lack access to transportation. Unfortunately for tourism development in the less-developed regions of the world, the institutional, social, and physical infrastructures described as weak in New Orleans is usually weaker or absent entirely. The successful avoidance of and recovery from disaster is placed even more squarely on the shoulders of private facilities in places like those examined here. So how can one gauge the impacts of disasters on tourism? Lenze (1997, p. 163) states, “There is as yet no generally accepted methodology for measuring the impacts of natural disasters.” He analyzes taxable sales to estimate the dynamic and spatial impacts from Hurricane Andrew on the local economy in Florida. So-called “intervention analysis” was used to examine the response of a time-series dataset to an external event. Such analyses are well suited to natural disasters because of their occurrence at particular points in time and their lingering effects. This information was used to conduct a "trend analysis" or elementary "intervention analysis", which Lenze defines as "one way to examine the response of a time series to an exogenous event (Box and Tiao, 1975). It is especially well suited to the study of natural disasters which occur at particular points in time, but which have lingering effects." For the purposes of this study, Lenze’s work will provide a template with which we can assess the changes following the three hurricane disasters. Changes in the variables (numbers of visitors, hotels, etc.) to each area (Placencia, Ambergris, Caulker, etc.) over a period of time are tracked based upon the date of each significant event (Hurricane Mitch – October 1998, Hurricane Keith – September- October 2000, September 11, 2001, and Hurricane Iris – October-November 2001). 4. METHODOLOGY Official data from the Belize Tourism Board were employed in our impact and recovery analyses. These data describe visitation rates, tourism infrastructure capacity rates, and the population of tour operators and businesses during the study period. These data were grouped into the following seven areas for analysis: Belize as a whole, Ambergris Caye, Caye Caulker, Other Islands, Placencia, Stann Creek, and Toledo. The data include the following measures of tourism activities: number of visitors to Belize by month (from 1998 to 2003); number of hotels, rooms and beds by area (from 1988 to 2003); monthly and annual occupancy rates by area (from 1997 to 2003); average annual occupancy rate by area (from 1997 to 2003); average monthly occupancy rates in Belize (from 1993 to 2003); number of tour guides and tour operators by area (from 1999 to 2003); room revenue growth by area (from 1993 to 2003); room revenue growth by month (from 1993 to 2003); and hotel employment by area (from 1994 to 2003) (Belize Tourism Board Ministry of Tourism & Culture 2001, Belize Tourism Board 2003). 5. RESULTS 5.1 THE IMPACT OF HURRICANES ON NATIONWIDE TOURISM RATES Because all three storms impacted Belize from early October to early November, the analysis will focus on that portion of each of the years. Over the six-year period from 1998-2003, September and October annually had the fewest visitors to Belize: an annual average of 9,933 visitors in those months. September had the lowest overall yearly average of 9,875 visitors. However, of either September or October, October 2000 saw the fewest visitors to Belize with only 8,580. Hurricane Keith occurred in early October 2000. The most visitors to Belize in any September or October during the study period occurred in October 2003 with 11,524. The high point of the tourist season is March, which surpassed all other months in the number of tourists visiting Belize for four (2000, 2001, 2002, 2003) of the six years analyzed. March 2003 saw the most visitors of all with 24,460, and March 2002 was only slightly lower at 23,388. The number of visitors to Belize in the months of 2003 surpassed every other year except in September, which saw higher numbers of tourist in 1998, 1999, and 2000. Hurricane Mitch may have had a negative immediate impact on the number of tourists to Belize in October 1998, which saw a drop of about ten percent from September, but then the numbers soared again until peaking in March 1999. Keith appears to have produced a drastic decline in the number of tourists from September to October 2000, but again, the number of visitors increased sharply from November through March. September 2001 and 2002 tied for the lowest number of visitors during September. This could be attributed to the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001 and fear of traveling on that date in 2002. Hurricane Iris does not appear to have had any affect on the number of visitors to Belize in October 2001, which increased slightly in October and then, in the typical pattern, climbed sharply, although 2002 began with fewer visitors than in 2001. 5.2 COMPARATIVE IMPORTANCE AND CHANGES BETWEEN TOURIST DISTRICTS Since 1988, Ambergris Caye has had the most hotels of any of the six areas analyzed, and in 2003, they had seventy-four registered hotels. Throughout the analysis, Ambergris Caye clearly stands out as the most important tourism region in the country. Placencia was usually second in importance and as of 2003 had sixty-three registered hotels. The number of registered hotels in Placencia and Caye Caulker were almost equal in 1997, but in 1998 the number of registered hotels in Placencia surpassed the number in Caye Caulker and has remained so since then. Besides Ambergris Caye, the only other area to have a higher number of registered hotels than Placencia was the Toledo District in 1998 (however, this was probably mistakenly recorded as the number of hotels in the Toledo District was the same in 1997 and 1999). Caye Caulker and Stann Creek remained flat, and Ambergris Caye saw a slight dip in the number of hotels in 1998, the year of Hurricane Mitch, and the number remained relatively flat until 2002. The only other time Ambergris saw a decline in the number of hotels was in 1993; why this occurred is not clear. The number of hotels in Placencia rose by eleven between 1997 and 1998, dropped by two in 2000, but rose by ten in 2001, and only dropped by three between 2001 (September 11 and Hurricane Iris) and 2002. Toledo District also saw a decline in the number of registered hotels in 2000 and 2002, and although the number of hotels in the Toledo District rose in 2003, it was the area with the least number of hotels out of all the areas analyzed. The drop in the number of hotels in the Toledo District in 2002 could be attributed to the destruction caused by Iris, and although there was an increase in 2003 it is only equal to the number of hotels in the District in 1993. As would be expected, Ambergris far exceeds every other area in the number of people employed by hotels. This is also true in terms of the number of registered tour guides in Ambergris even with a sharp decline in 2003. However, the number of registered tour operators in Ambergris only surpassed Placencia in 2001. Placencia surpassed Stann Creek and Other Islands in hotel employment in 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2003. Placencia had the second largest number of hotel employees in 2003 of all the areas analyzed appearing to illustrate a recovery from Hurricane Iris. Hotel employment in Placencia fell sharply in 2002, and this was likely an effect of Hurricane Iris since it was the only area that showed such a decline. Ambergris Caye again tops the list with the highest average annual occupancy rate per area for the period 1997-2003 at 47.3 percent in 2003. Although Ambergris exceeded all other areas from 1997 to 2001 the average annual occupancy rate dropped in 2002, and even dipped below Other Islands, which had the highest average annual occupancy of all areas in 2002. Occupancy rates in Ambergris remained flat in 2003, but decreased dramatically in the Other Islands region that same year. Caye Caulker also saw a slight decrease. Placencia, Stann Creek and Toledo all had increases in the average annual occupancy rate in 2003. Perhaps tourists are being pushed (or pulled?) to venture out to other areas. The occupancy rate in Placencia increased significantly from 1997 and peaked in 2000 at 43.3 percent. Occupancy declined slightly in 2001 and sharply in 2002, very likely a result of September 11 and Hurricane Iris, with 2003 showing a modest increase. In 2003, Placencia was fourth in the average annual occupancy rate at 35.7 percent compared to having the second highest average annual occupancy rate of the six areas in 2000. Only Ambergris Caye and Other Islands have exceeded fifty percent average annual occupancy rate with both peaking in 2001 at 53.9 percent and 52.2 percent respectively. 5.3 MONTHLY PATTERNS OF VISITATION TO THE SIX TOURISM REGIONS In order to further investigate the impacts of Hurricanes Mitch, Keith, and Iris on the affected areas, and September 11 on all areas, the monthly occupancy rate from 1997-2003 for each area was analyzed. As has already been shown, September and October are the slowest tourist months in Belize, and the monthly occupancy rate for each area also reflects this trend. But did the areas affected by hurricanes fair worse during the months following hurricanes than did other areas? The overall occupancy rate in Ambergris Caye rose steadily from 1997 until 2001 then, in 2002 and 2003 it dropped back to occupancy rates lower than those in 2000. The monthly occupancy rate for Ambergris Caye was highest in 2001, except for September, which saw a drop from 56.4 percent in August to 22.1 percent. This was the second lowest occupancy rate in Ambergris Caye surpassed only by the September 1997 rate. The low visitation in September 2001 was likely a product of September 11. Five of the seven years analyzed had September occupancy rates of less than twenty-five percent, but in 2000 the September occupancy rate soared to a high of thirty-six percent. Similarly, five of the seven years analyzed had October occupancy rates of between 25-33 percent. But October 2000 and 2001 had rates near forty-five percent, the highest October rates of all years analyzed. The lowest October occupancy rate in Ambergris Caye occurred in 2002. Mitch (October 1998) appears to have had a small negative immediate impact on occupancy rates in Ambergris Caye. The rate dropped in November 1998 to 27.5 percent from the October rate of 32.6 percent. In December it rose to thirty-five percent and the rate eventually peaked at 52.4 percent in February 1999. January and February 1999 occupancy rates were lower than 1998, but 1999 rates met or exceeded 1998 rates in nine months of the year with 1999 ending significantly higher than 1998. Amazingly Keith (October 2000) appears to have had little to no impact anywhere. As previously mentioned, the occupancy rate in September 2000 was the highest of all years studied, and the occupancy rate rose in October 2000 until peaking at an astounding 74 percent in March 2001. Six of the months of 2001 exceeded previous occupancy rates. It appears that September 11 also had only a small, temporary impact on Ambergris’ occupancy rate. The rate dropped to the second lowest in September 2001, but rose in October 2001 to rates almost equal to the 2000 rates, which are the highest ever for the September through December period. This would also seem to indicate that Hurricane Iris had no impact on occupancy rates in Ambergris Caye. Indeed, it may even have helped. Interestingly, however, 2002 and 2003 had lower occupancy rates than 2000 and 2001. The highest monthly occupancy rates for Placencia occurred in 2000 with a peak in March of that year at almost 64 percent. The lowest occupancy rates occurred in 1997 and 1998, and although the very lowest rates occurred in September and October 1998, November showed an increase, even after Hurricane Mitch in October. Just like Ambergris, Placencia had record- setting occupancy rates in October through December 2000, and 2001 started with a higher occupancy rate than any other January. By February, however, it had fallen to below its 2000 numbers and remained below in all months except May 2001. The occupancy rates for September for all seven years studied are between twelve and sixteen percent. There are four Septembers (1997, 1998, 1999, and 2002) with lower occupancy rates than September 2001. It appears that the events of September 11 did not have an effect on occupancy rates in Placencia and the October 2001 rate even rose slightly, although 2001 turned out to be the third lowest occupancy rate (only 1997 and 1998 were lower). November 2001 was the second lowest occupancy rate of any November. December, however, saw a sharp increase. January 2002 started at the same low rate as in 1998 and 1999. Occupancy rates in 2003 started out lower than 2000 and 2001, but surpassed 2001 in the last seven months of the year and finished fourth overall below 2000, 1999, and 2002, respectively. Caye Caulker saw its lowest occupancy rate in October 2000 after Hurricane Keith with only June 1997 having a slightly lower occupancy rate. September and October 2001 had the highest occupancy rates of any year analyzed, and early 2002 peaked at the highest level ever in February. Mitch (1998) appears to be the only disaster studied that may have had an impact on occupancy rates in Caye Caulker because 1999 was the second lowest year on record and the lowest January start of all years. For the Stann Creek District, 1997 and 1998 were the years with the lowest occupancy rate. The rate for October 1998 (Mitch) is the lowest of all and although November and December saw increases, the rate was still below all other years. The lowest September occurred in 2002. September 2001 was third lowest of the seven years studied. Only 2002 and 1997 were lower, but October 2001 saw an increase to the highest October occupancy rate ever in the Stann Creek District. However the rate fell again in November 2001 then continued to seesaw until a plunge in August and September 2002. This could be interpreted as showing that that there was no impact on occupancy rates in Stann Creek due to September 11, Hurricane Iris had a small effect, but overall it appears that Stann Creek experienced a negative aftershock occurring in September and October 2002 from these two events. Hurricane Keith (2000) also appears to have had little effect on occupancy rates with September 2000 being the second highest September with only 2003 being higher, and October 2000 saw a slight increase that continued into 2001 peaking in March with the highest ever occupancy rate at more than sixty- one percent. 6. CONCLUSION In this brief examination of some of the indicators of tourism vitality in relation to the occurrence of major disasters, we can detect little clear indication that hurricanes play a significant role in perturbing tourism in disaster areas. Of hurricanes Mitch, Keith, and Iris, temporally related changes in visitation, infrastructural availability, employment, or occupancy rates seem to have occurred only after Mitch, a storm that did not directly strike Belize. Iris, too, certainly generated impediments to continued service from the tourist areas in the south (Placencia, Stann Creek, and Toledo), but the impact zone was relatively small. Hurricane Keith struck the northern portion of Belize directly, but seemed to leave little apparent impact on the tourism activities within the area. Of all of the events to have a distinguishable impact, the effect of September 11th, 2001, was apparent in many of the regions’ statistics. Visitors seem to be deterred less by impressions of destroyed tourist facilities than by the perceived threats associated with the travel to get to their destinations. This is a most striking conclusion as it is still not clear whether tourists will pursue their visit to a disaster-ravaged area unless they are prevented from doing so by physical, political, or infrastructural barriers. 7. REFERENCES Avila, L.A. 2001. Tropical Cyclone Report, Hurricane Iris, 4-9 October 2001. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2001iris.html. Last accessed 12 July 2002. BBC News. 2001. Hurricane Iris Kills 18. October 9. http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/americas/newsid_1588000/1588095.stm Last accessed 12 July 2002. 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Last accessed 8 September 2002. Lenze, D.G. 1997. Dynamic and Spatial Impact of Hurricane Andrew on Florida’s Taxable Sales: An Intervention Analysis. The Review of Regional Studies 27(2):163-183. Sambatero, George. 2001. 2001: The Hurricane Season in Review. St. Petersburg Times. http://www.sptimes.com/News/weather/george.shtml. Last accessed 12 July 2002. WRAL.com. 2001. Extremely Dangerous Iris Hits Belize: Iris, Strongest Hurricane of the Season, Comes Ashore with 140 MPH Winds. http://www.wral.com/hurricanes/1008514/detail.html. Last accessed 12 July 2002.